INTRA CALLS WILL BE IN COMMENT SECTION
Todays Range 13/06/11
Nifty future's projected high and low for next session is 5580 and 5390 (use this projection with other indicators). Nifty future's immediate resistance now comes at 5495 zone. If crosses that zone with big volume then only up move will be seen towards 5531-5544 zone. Crossover above 5544 will zoom to 5589 level itself. Immediate support now comes at 5475. If cannot sustain above 5495 and trades below 5475 then it will crash upto 5441 and below 5441 a real free fall will be seen upto 5393 zone
CASH MARKET
FII -170
DII +337
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS ( 10.06.2011)
INDEX - 375
INDEX OPTION -47
STOCK +6
STOCK OPTION -4
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Expected Bullish Stocks For 13/06/2011: MARUTI, TCS, APOLLO TYRE, IDEA, GAIL,HINDOILEXP, RAYMOND, BOMDYING.
Expected Bearish Stocks For 13/06/2011: LITL, ABAN, DENA BANK, TV-18, SBI, GVK POWER,IOB, BHUSANSTL.
TIPS FOR 13/06/2011
1. SELL ANDHRSUGAR below 92 SL above 93.50 Target 89.50 (Intraday / Positional call)
2. BUY NEHAINT above 184 SL below 182 Target 188-190.
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NIFTY OUTLOOK
Most definitely on closing basis.
That long lower spike on friday`s candle implies that nifty found support at the lower levels.
This reinforced with 5400PE having the max OI about 87L though OI came down by about 3L or so during the day. This can be attributed to individual writers squaring off in panic.
Also - the vols in May were north of 10K crs in the cash segment.
10 days of just under 10K crs and 12 days of north of 10K crores - avg of these 12 days works out to 11827K crs.
Avg on the other 10 days works out to 9193 crs
In June - session on June 1, 2 and 3 did over 9K crs while the rest of the 5 sessions averaged less than 8K crs. Shows volz declining while market is declining. I intrepret that as bullish in the short term.
unless 5400PE is sq off in huge numbers and the OI drops by 10-15L, it will offer solid support.
Entire month of April - volz were in mid 5 digit except for one day and markets declined all of April.
I feel 5445 should hold on closing basis and mayb even on intraday basis.
I also fee the triangle is playing out and if indeed it is the triangle - we have to get to the upper TL currently at around 5750 and since this line is declining and the rate of decline (approx avg) is 5 points per session.
Wave C took 34 sessions, assuming wave D would be .618 times 34 = 21sessions.
If indeed the current wave is the wave D of triang, it has clocked 13 sessions and 8 more left to target of wave D
Deducting 5 points for each of the left over 8 sessions brings the declining TL to 5750-40 = 5710 which wud be target for D. 8 sessions from Monday gives us Wed 22June, assuming there are no holidays.
My count could be wrong, but this how I plan to trade.
Long via the July 5400CE - to begin with a tight 10 points SL from the entry point.
Once we clear 5503, will write July 5700CE in the ratio of 1 lot long and 1/2 lot July 5700CE.
Once 5556 is cleared will increase the ratio to 1:1
On a rise above 5606 - I will write 1 lot of July 5800CE.
At 5700 - Will Book out of 5400CE and HOLD the short 5700CE and 5800CE with SL at Cost basis
If on 22June or earlier we go over 5725 and the 5700PE wud be bought back either at cost or with a small loss.
If indeed we turn back from 5710-25 zone, Will continue to write 5800CE.
Wave E after the D is tricky, though its direction is down to meet the rising lower TL, if often either falls short and reverses direction or overshoots the lower TL and then reverses direction.
In case this count is fairy tale - Nifty wud not be able to go over the 5605 level and collapse to make new lows via an expanded diagonal. I will just let the SL take me out of the long 5400CE and protect the short 5700CE.
Contracting triangle or Expanded diagonal? We will know by June 22 - certainly by the end of June expiration.
In short - Over 5605 - we are headed to 5700 then a decline of approx 200 points to E and we then make new highs.
If we take out 5328 - we will test and probably violate the 5178-5232 zone.
Report of last friday and broader outlook
My Dear visitor’s on 10th June 2011 indian equity benchmarks broke the narrow range of 5500-5550 seen since last Friday to close today’s trade below the 5500 mark for the fear of possible R.B.I rate hike and also for the disappointing industrial output data published today. The disappointing industrial output data clearly indicates that there is a slowdown in the indian economy. Food inflation, which was now more than 9% is also a big concern. In view of above, it may possible that R.B.I is going to hike increase the interest rates again On 16th June, at least 25 basis points.
If you view the present valuation of the market in Lieu of various factors like high inflation, which also continues day by day along with high price of international Crude, It’s not a cheap market any more. Finally a good monsoon has already been discounted by the markets which was forecast ed before.
In view of above, now we have to wait for the next Q1 results of the companies for a positive trigger and for the time being market breadth will remain negative. So the conclusion is, sell on abnormal rise and buy on extreme lower supports is prudent for this kind of market, till the situation improves, which may take some time more. Remember, now sometime you will some good positive rise of the market, But that may be for short covering or some sudden upward spike due to some sudden good news, but that does not indicate a Mid Term/Long term positive trends.
