Trading ideas for 17/08/2011

Trading ideas for 17/07/2011(Wednesday)

Still its sell on rise and buy on huge gap down until nifty break 5170 and confirms by closing above 5210 .

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FII DERIVATIVES
Index Future	Index Option	Stock Future	Stock Index
+799	-1643	+514	+22
FII Cash	-216
DII Cash	+251

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India VIX : 26.46
Call OI : 50859050
Put OI : 48066850
PCR : 0.945
SMR : 28.00

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Intraday support and resistance:

S2	S1	Pivot	R1	R2
4940	5995	5058	5108	5177

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Nifty Open Interest for August stands at 2,35,48,700 down by 1,29,800 with decrease in price (Long Liquidation)

Bank Nifty Open Interest for August stands at 15,34,700 up by 1,06,075 with decrease in price (Huge Short Buildup)

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For 17/07/11 NF may take support at 5030

Above 5045 NF may rally up to 5075

Below 5030 NF may correct up to 4970

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OPTION DATA ANALYSIS


As per OI Table put option 4800, 4900 and 5000 along with call option 5000, 5100 and 5200 were written. 5000 still a decent support at 5000 but nifty looks very week use the chance to sell on gap up and buy on huge gap down.

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Expected Bullish Stocks For 17/07/2011:GUJFLUORO, BHARTIARTL, HEROMOTOCO, DISHTV, ZEEL .

Expected Bearish Stocks For 17/07/2011: PNB, BIOCON, IVRCLINFRA, PUNJLLOYD, GTL, NCC .

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NIFTY VIX

• VIX above 60 are dangerous levels. Markets will be highly unpredictable. If Markets are on a high (Nifty P/E above 24), then its advisable to exit the markets completely. Markets may be hot and totally bullish, but will most likely face a darker correction. Its just a question of time.
• VIX below 20 mostly indicate a more stable markets, purely because the volatility is less. It does not mean that markets wont fall. It just means that markets will follow predictable fundamental supports and resistances.

SMR = Smart Money Ratio (India VIX / PCR)

SMR is a measure of fear in the market. A value of less than 20 indicates that market is lack of fear and volatility and the higher PCR ratio(greater than 1) supports such kind of action. And a value of 60 or greater than 60 indicates too much of fear in the market which is highly motivated with lower PCR ratio (less than 1). It is a kind of indicator which provides information about which kind of market we are right now.

Put/Call Ratio

Put/call ratio (or put-call ratio, PCR) is a technical indicator demonstrating investors' sentiment.[1] The ratio represents a proportion between all the put options and all the call options purchased on any given day.

The market has bottomed when PCR was around 0.8-0.9 and topped when it was 1.2 or above.

HOW TO INTERPRET THESE VALUES

SMR with a value less than 15 indicates the market is lack of fear and volatility and along with high PCR ratio more than 1 supports such kind of action. And a value of more than 25 indicates too much of fear in the market which along with lower PCR ratio of less than 1 confirms it. It gives the mind of players in the market.